Simple individual-based models effectively represent Afrotropical forest bird movement in complex landscapes

Reliable estimates of dispersal rates between habitat patches (i.e. functional connectivity) are critical for predicting long-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Connectivity measures are frequently derived from least cost path or graph-based approaches, despite the fact that these methods make biologically unrealistic assumptions. Individual-based models (IBMs) have been proposed as an alternative as they allow modelling movement behaviour in response to landscape resistance. However, IBMs typically require excessive data to be useful for management. Here, we test the extent to which an IBM requiring only an uncomplicated set of movement rules [the 'stochastic movement simulator' (SMS)] can predict animal movement behaviour in real-world landscapes. Movement behaviour of two forest birds, the Cabanis's greenbul Phyllastrephus cabanisi (a forest specialist) and the white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata (a habitat generalist), across an Afrotropical matrix was simulated using SMS. Predictions from SMS were evaluated against a set of detailed movement paths collected by radiotracking homing individuals. SMS was capable of generating credible predictions of bird movement, although simulations were sensitive to the cost values and the movement rules specified. Model performance was generally highest when movement was simulated across low-contrasting cost surfaces and when virtual individuals were assigned low directional persistence and limited perceptual range. SMS better predicted movements of the habitat specialist than the habitat generalist, which highlights its potential to model functional connectivity when species movements are affected by the matrix. Synthesis and applications. Modelling the dispersal process with greater biological realism is likely to be critical for improving our predictive capability regarding functional connectivity and population persistence. For more realistic models to be widely applied, it is vital that their application is not overly complicated or data demanding. Here, we show that given relatively basic understanding of a species' dispersal ecology, the stochastic movement simulator represents a promising tool for estimating connectivity, which can help improve the design of functional ecological networks aimed at successful species conservation

Hidden histories of Roman towns: seeing beneath the surface of Falerii Novi and Interamna Lirenas

How can we unpick the development of Roman towns? Even large excavations only open up modest areas, while traditional geophysical survey superimposes countless different phases of activity. Now, Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) has come of age and can provide a virtual slice through the underlying soil. Giovanna Rita Bellini, Alessandro Launaro, Martin Millett, Lieven Verdocnk, Frank Vermeulen provide a breathtaking new view of the Roman towns of Falerii Novi and Interamna Lirenas

Bandit Models of Human Behavior: Reward Processing in Mental Disorders

Drawing an inspiration from behavioral studies of human decision making, we propose here a general parametric framework for multi-armed bandit problem, which extends the standard Thompson Sampling approach to incorporate reward processing biases associated with several neurological and psychiatric conditions, including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), addiction, and chronic pain. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed parametric approach can often outperform the baseline Thompson Sampling on a variety of datasets. Moreover, from the behavioral modeling perspective, our parametric framework can be viewed as a first step towards a unifying computational model capturing reward processing abnormalities across multiple mental conditions.Comment: Conference on Artificial General Intelligence, AGI-1

Motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease: A unified framework

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is characterized by a range of motor symptoms. Besides the cardinal symptoms (akinesia and bradykinesia, tremor and rigidity), PD patients show additional motor deficits, including: gait disturbance, impaired handwriting, grip force and speech deficits, among others. Some of these motor symptoms (e.g., deficits of gait, speech, and handwriting) have similar clinical profiles, neural substrates, and respond similarly to dopaminergic medication and deep brain stimulation (DBS). Here, we provide an extensive review of the clinical characteristics and neural substrates of each of these motor symptoms, to highlight precisely how PD and its medical and surgical treatments impact motor symptoms. In conclusion, we offer a unified framework for understanding the range of motor symptoms in PD. We argue that various motor symptoms in PD reflect dysfunction of neural structures responsible for action selection, motor sequencing, and coordination and execution of movement

The lower mass function of the young open cluster Blanco 1: from 30 Mjup to 3 Mo

We performed a deep wide field optical survey of the young (~100-150 Myr) open cluster Blanco1 to study its low mass population well down into the brown dwarf regime and estimate its mass function over the whole cluster mass range.The survey covers 2.3 square degrees in the I and z-bands down to I ~ z ~ 24 with the CFH12K camera. Considering two different cluster ages (100 and 150 Myr), we selected cluster member candidates on the basis of their location in the (I,I-z) CMD relative to the isochrones, and estimated the contamination by foreground late-type field dwarfs using statistical arguments, infrared photometry and low-resolution optical spectroscopy. We find that our survey should contain about 57% of the cluster members in the 0.03-0.6 Mo mass range, including 30-40 brown dwarfs. The candidate's radial distribution presents evidence that mass segregation has already occured in the cluster. We took it into account to estimate the cluster mass function across the stellar/substellar boundary. We find that, between 0.03Mo and 0.6Mo, the cluster mass distribution does not depend much on its exact age, and is well represented by a single power-law, with an index alpha=0.69 +/- 0.15. Over the whole mass domain, from 0.03Mo to 3Mo, the mass function is better fitted by a log-normal function with m0=0.36 +/- 0.07Mo and sigma=0.58 +/- 0.06. Comparison between the Blanco1 mass function, other young open clusters' MF, and the galactic disc MF suggests that the IMF, from the substellar domain to the higher mass part, does not depend much on initial conditions. We discuss the implications of this result on theories developed to date to explain the origin of the mass distribution.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figures and 5 tables accepted in A&

Insulin resistance increases the occurrence of new cardiovascular events in patients with manifest arterial disease without known diabetes. The SMART study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insulin resistance is accompanied by a cluster of metabolic changes, often referred to as metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk in patients with manifest arterial disease. We investigated whether insulin resistance is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular events in patients with manifest arterial disease without known diabetes and whether this can be explained by the components of the metabolic syndrome or by inflammation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective cohort study in 2611 patients with manifest arterial disease without known diabetes. Homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was used to quantify insulin resistance. The relation of HOMA-IR with cardiovascular events (vascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke) and all cause mortality was assessed with Cox regression analysis. In additional models adjustments were performed for the single components constituting the metabolic syndrome and for inflammation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>HOMA-IR increases with the number of metabolic syndrome components (mean HOMA-IR ± SD in groups with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 metabolic syndrome components: 1.4 ± 0.7; 1.8 ± 1.2; 2.4 ± 1.5; 3.1 ± 1.8; 4.0 ± 2.6; and 5.6 ± 3.6 respectively). High HOMA-IR was independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events (tertile 2 vs. 1 HR 1.92; 95%CI 1.20-3.08) (tertile 3 vs.1 HR 1.78; 95%CI 1.10-2.89) and with all cause mortality (tertile 2 vs. 1 HR 1.80; 95%CI 1.04-3.10) (tertile 3 vs.1 HR 1.56; 95%CI 0.88-2.75). These relations were not influenced by the individual components of metabolic syndrome or by inflammation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with manifest arterial disease without known diabetes, insulin resistance increases with the number of metabolic syndrome components, and elevated insulin resistance increases the risk of new cardiovascular events.</p

Coordinated and tailored work rehabilitation: a randomized controlled trial with economic evaluation undertaken with workers on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders

Introduction In Denmark, the magnitude and impact of work disability on the individual worker and society has prompted the development of a new "coordinated and tailored work rehabilitation" (CTWR) approach. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of CTWR with conventional case management (CCM) on return-to-work of workers on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Methods The study was a randomized controlled trial with economic evaluation undertaken with workers on sick leave for 4-12 weeks due to MSDs. CTWR consists of a work disability screening by an interdisciplinary team followed by the collaborative development of a RTW plan. The primary outcome variable was registered cumulative sickness absence hours during 12 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes were work status as well as pain intensity and functional disability, measured at baseline, 3 and 12 months follow-up. The economic evaluation (intervention costs, productivity loss, and health care utilization costs) was based on administrative data derived from national registries. Results For the time intervals 0-6 months, 6-12 months, and the entire follow-up period, the number of sickness absence hours was significantly lower in the CTWR group as compared to the control group. The total costs saved in CTWR participants compared to controls were estimated at US $1,366 per person at 6 months follow-up and US$ 10,666 per person at 12 months follow-up. Conclusions Workers on sick leave for 4-12 weeks due to MSD who underwent "CTWR" by an interdisciplinary team had fewer sickness absence hours than controls. The economic evaluation showed that-in terms of productivity loss-CTWR seems to be cost saving for the society